Lenny's Podcast: Product | Career | Growth

A rational conversation on where AI is actually going | Benedict Evans

1h 20min

In this episode, Benedict Evans discusses the transformative potential of AI, comparing its impact to that of the internet and mobile technology, but cautions that we are still in the early stages akin to 1997. He argues against the hype of immediate job displacement, emphasizing historical patterns where automation creates new jobs, and explores where value will accrue in the AI ecosystem, suggesting foundational model companies may not have the pricing power many assume.

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✨ Key Takeaways

1

AI is as big a deal as the internet or mobile, but we're still in the '1997' phase where most applications don't work yet and the real breakthroughs are yet to come.
2

Historical evidence shows automation creates new jobs (e.g., accounting grew despite spreadsheets), challenging the narrative of an imminent job apocalypse.
3

Benedict Evans argues foundational AI model companies (like OpenAI) may become low-margin commodity providers, with most value accruing to application layers—similar to how mobile networks became utilities while apps thrived.
4

Distribution and existing user bases are becoming critical moats, benefiting incumbents like Google and Meta over startups in the AI race.
5

He advises individuals to dive into AI to understand it practically, rather than adopting an anti-AI stance, to future-proof their careers.
6

quotes": [ "My most controversial opinion is that I think that AI is as big a deal as the internet or mobile—and only as big a deal as the internet or mobile." — Benedict Evans
7

"You can't predict which things are going to be exposed. You can't look at a senior partner with a law firm and say, well, 17% of their work could be automated. This is horseshit." — Benedict Evans
8

"What helps is you diving into this and coming out understanding for you to do it. Don't stick your head in the sand and say, hey, told me this stuff." — Benedict Evans

💬 Notable Quotes

"My most controversial opinion is that I think that AI is as big a deal as the internet or mobile—and only as big a deal as the internet or mobile."

— Benedict Evans
"You can't predict which things are going to be exposed. You can't look at a senior partner with a law firm and say, well, 17% of their work could be automated. This is horseshit."

— Benedict Evans
"What helps is you diving into this and coming out understanding for you to do it. Don't stick your head in the sand and say, hey, told me this stuff."

— Benedict Evans