Macro Voices

MacroVoices #541 Dr. Anas Alhajji: Bab el-Mandeb: The Next Oil Chokepoint Nobody's Watching

1h 56min

Dr. Anas Alhajji argues that the US intentionally closed the Strait of Hormuz to demonstrate energy and AI dominance over China, but the plan backfired when uncontrollable IRGC factions kept the strait shut. He warns that the next critical chokepoint is Bab el-Mandeb, where Houthi attacks could spike oil prices above $100 by disrupting Saudi crude flows. The episode also explores how the real bottleneck is in refining capacity and petroleum products, not crude oil, and how LNG and coal will be long-term winners from this crisis.

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✨ Key Takeaways

1

Dr. Anas Alhajji presents a non-consensus view that the US, not Iran, intentionally closed the Strait of Hormuz to signal energy and AI dominance to China, but IRGC hardliners exploited the situation to keep it shut.
2

The next oil chokepoint to watch is Bab el-Mandeb; any Houthi attack that spooks insurers could remove 4 million barrels/day of Saudi crude, pushing oil above $100.
3

The real bottleneck is in refining and petroleum products, not crude oil, as US refineries run near full capacity and medium sour crude from the Gulf is stranded.
4

US LNG and coal are structural winners from the crisis as countries prioritize energy security and AI-driven power demand escalates.
5

The ghost of Hormuz will persist for decades, making every rumor or attack on the strait a tool for price manipulation via social media.

💬 Notable Quotes

"The idea here is you can either look at the war with Iran as a war that is intended for Iran and it's a nuclear program... Or you can look at Iran's war within this context: Venezuela, the Panama Canal, the trade wars, the sanctions, the tariffs, Russia, China, Greenland. If you put it within that context, you get a completely different view of what's going on at Hormuz than anything else."
"What we did here is we created a monster that no one can slain. Period. Anyone can play this market right now. With social media, they just made the impact of Hormuz way larger."
"Those massive releases of SPR, especially of the medium sour crude, saved the world."