Edward Chancellor and Charles Carter discuss how the market often misprices the impact of new technologies like AI, over-penalizing certain stocks that may actually benefit from proprietary data and domain expertise. They highlight examples like RelX and Experian, whose unique data assets could become more valuable in the AI era, and online classifieds like Rightmove, which face disintermediation risks but maintain strong competitive moats.
Summarized by Podsumo
The stock market has a poor track record of predicting losers from technological disruption, with a study showing it is right only about half the time—no better than a coin toss.
Companies with proprietary, contributory data (like Experian and RelX) may see their assets become *more* valuable as AI requires accurate, deterministic data rather than probabilistic web scrapes.
Online classified platforms (Rightmove, Auto Trader) face a disintermediation threat from AI agents, but their vertical-domain expertise and network effects provide a strong defense.
Booking Holdings was cited as a company that successfully fended off AI competition by building deep relationships with hotels that OpenAI cannot easily replicate.
Waiting for clear evidence of AI impact risks missing market rallies, so long-term investors should act now based on probabilities rather than certainty.
"The stock market has a pretty abysmal track record when it comes to pricing winners and losers during the earlier take."
"In the age of AI, proprietary data could actually become more valuable rather than less valuable."
"If you stand around waiting, the chances are when the catalyst comes, you'll miss it or the market will anticipate it."