#821 The Markets are Not Consoled with Promises of More Oil Supplies

Global Market Instability: Markets, including India's Nifty and Sensex, are sinking, and strategic oil reserve releases are failing to soothe investors, indicating deep concerns about the war's prolonged nature.

India's Energy Security & Hormuz: While India's crude supply is 'secured,' LPG/LNG availability is problematic. Iran's allowance of Indian ships through the Strait of Hormuz is a 'back-room dealing' and 'ship-by-ship transaction' rather than a formal agreement, adding complexity and risk.

Unusual Gold Behavior: Contrary to expectations during wartime, gold prices are steady or falling, attributed to a stronger dollar and higher treasury yields, making yielding assets more attractive.

Rupee Depreciation & Inflation: The Indian Rupee hit a record low, and retail inflation rose in February due to higher food prices, with further increases expected, including airfares.

Investment Strategy Shift: Experts recommend maintaining neutral equity allocation but increasing commodity exposure (precious, base, and strategic metals) to 20%, anticipating a dollar weakening cycle and playing domestic themes like metals and chemicals.