The Core Report

#832 Global Markets Turn Nervous Again

24 min

Global markets are nervous due to escalating US-Iran tensions, with potential military action and rising oil prices. BlackRock's Ben Powell discusses the end of the "everything bull market," advocating for active investing in a "world shaped by supply" that will see structurally higher inflation and interest rates. He highlights India's long-term potential through demography and AI adoption, making it an attractive diversified investment despite current energy challenges.

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✨ Key Takeaways

1

US-Iran tensions escalate, with peace talks faltering and the US considering ground invasion targets like Keshom Island and Karg Island, pushing crude oil prices above $100 a barrel.
2

India has secured crude oil supplies for at least 61 days and diversified by ramping up purchases of Russian crude, with Iran granting safe passage for Indian-bound ships.
3

BlackRock declares the end of the "everything bull market," emphasizing a shift to active, selective investing across asset classes due to a more fragmented and chaotic global environment.
4

The world is moving towards a "supply-shaped" economy prioritizing resilience over efficiency, leading to structurally higher inflation and interest rates (US 10-year yield of 4.4% is considered "somewhat low").
5

India presents long-term investment attractiveness due to its demography, productivity, and future AI adoption, offering diversification benefits despite current energy headwinds and its non-AI-centric market status.

💬 Notable Quotes

"He warned that there would be no turning back if progress stalled. He said the Iranian negotiators are very different and strange. They are begging us to make a deal which they should be doing since they have been militarily obliterated with zero chance of a comeback and yet they publicly state that they are only looking at our proposal."
"The era of the everything bull market is over."