The Intelligence from The Economist

The bog of war: week five begins

28 min

The war with Iran has entered its fifth week with little prospect of an end, raising concerns about escalation, including potential US ground troop deployment and increased Houthi attacks impacting global oil markets. While Iran believes it holds the upper hand, the US seeks an off-ramp, but prolonged conflict risks further political pressure on Trump for escalatory measures and deep damage to international relations. The episode also briefly touches on America's historical growth and the resurgence of sci-fi films.

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✨ Key Takeaways

1

Iran-US War Escalation

The conflict's fifth week sees discussions of potential US ground troop deployment and increased Houthi missile attacks on Israel, threatening Red Sea shipping and global oil prices.
2

Iran's Perceived Advantage

Iran believes it has the upper hand, maintaining missile and drone attacks, controlling the Strait of Hormuz, and profiting from higher oil prices, despite limited damage to its infrastructure.
3

US Dilemma

The Trump administration seeks a diplomatic off-ramp due to the war's unpopularity and economic impact, but a lack of quick resolution could push him towards escalatory measures, including ground invasions, despite his past anti-forever war rhetoric.
4

America's Historical Shifts

A look back at America's 250-year history highlights its rise as an industrial power, labor struggles, growing anti-immigrant sentiment, segregation, and expansionist policies in the late 19th/early 20th century.
5

Sci-Fi's Resurgence

2026 is dubbed the "year of sci-fi" with many original films, exemplified by "Project Hail Mary," which is a box office hit for its blend of nihilism and hope, and mind-stretching themes.

💬 Notable Quotes

"The longer the war drags on, the greater the consequences for all sides. We're getting to a point where each party to this war might start to overplay its hand."

— Greg Carlstrom
"The president who once said he's against forever wars in the Middle East, he's against large deployments of American troops in the Middle East, he's starting something that may end with exactly that sort of scenario."

— Greg Carlstrom
"I think the theme balancing nihilism and end of the world, Doomsday scenario with hope is very appealing to people."

— Alexander Sujibas